Opportunity Cost Calculator
Compare staying employed vs the startup path
Current Employment
Your total compensation (base + bonus)
Startup Opportunity
Current valuation: $10.0M
If successful: $100.0M
Note: Most startups have 10-20% success probability
Total Foregone Salary
$473K
Over 3 years with 5% annual growth
Expected Equity Value
$150K
1% x $100.0M x 15% success
Current Equity Value
$100K
1% of $10.0M valuation
Break-even Exit Valuation
$315.3M
Startup must reach this value at 15% success rate
Net Expected Value (Startup - Salary)
$-322,875
Expected Value Comparison
Expected value accounts for 15% success probability
What If: Different Success Probabilities
5%
Favors Job
10%
Favors Job
15%
Favors Job
20%
Favors Job
30%
Favors Job
Financial Case is Weak
Expected equity value is only 32% of foregone salary. Unless success probability is higher than estimated, or you value non-financial factors very highly, the numbers don't favor leaving your job.
Key Insights
If Startup Succeeds
$1.0M
Your 1% at $100.0M exit
Valuation Needed at Success
$47.3M
To match your 3-year salary
Equity-to-Salary Ratio
0.32x
Expected equity / foregone salary
Implied Multiple Needed
31.5x
From current $10.0M valuation
Want to learn more about evaluating startup opportunities?
Read our guide on calculating the true cost of leaving your job, risk assessment frameworks, and making the decision.
Read the complete opportunity cost guide →